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汉贝托：2014年将会比2013年更好吗？
来源：陶瓷信息报    发布时间：2014-02-17    作者：汉贝托    访问量：6190

 
2014年将会比2013年更好吗？
    
IS 2014 GOING TO BE A BETTER YEAR THAN 2013?
2014年将会比2013年更好吗？
 
 
汉贝托Humberto Valles
广东新风景陶瓷有限公司（ICC瓷砖）总经理
InDesign创意总监    InDesign Creative Director
美籍墨西哥人   ICC General Manager
 
     无论我到哪里,关于我们行业的主要话题之一都是围绕经济形势以及今年是否会比去年更好的话题展开。
     在美国，在墨西哥，在中国，无一例外， 在大部分的会议，宴会等场合都会被问到这些同样的问题，美国市场会变得更好吗？中国市场今年会比去年更好吗？
     我想如果我们能够清楚知道答案的话，做事情和做决定会变得轻松很多。但不幸的是，我所认识的人里面没有谁可以预测未来。
     中国新年期间我到墨西哥和美国出了个长差，刚刚才回来。我在这些国家所亲眼看到的，所听到的，将会在我的报告里面提及，以及在拉斯维加斯参加的Surfaces陶瓷展上得到的信息都非常的振奋人心。
     数字很清楚的反映了过去三年市场的持续提升，但是还是明显低于2006年到2008年的黄金年份。好的方面是情况正在持续变好！
     中国怎么样呢？这些对中国市场的影响如何呢？一方面来说这开始缓解中国国内市场的销售压力。 这就像高压锅的压力阀。 现在压力是如此之大，一旦美国以及世界其它国家的形势转好，我们就可以打开这个气阀，缓解国内市场的巨大销售压力。
     我没有办法直接了解到中国国内陶瓷行业的细节信息，我所知道的是，虽然现在中国市场称不上火热，但至少是温暖的，而美国以及世界其它地方还处于低迷的状态，等待回暖。
     中国是一个如此巨大的市场，哪怕陶瓷出口量不能与过去相比，但是国内市场仍旧可以基本消化所有的瓷砖产量。然而却导致国内市场的价格竞争，厂家为了走量而提出低价。很多情况下，给那些不能依靠走量和低价竞争的企业带来了负面影响，导致不得不关闭或者被其它行业巨头吞掉。
     当然也因为这些因素，在过去的两年里面，产能和企业的数量也有所缩减。
    一位在行业里面举足轻重的企业家曾经告诉我， 在困难的时候，只有两种公司可以做好：一种是市场占有率很高，能够通过走量和低价来保护自己市场的企业，另一种是那些专注质量，设计，创新，而不依靠走量和低价路线的企业。其中后者的企业数量相对较少，竞争激烈程度相对较低，而且它们所面临的销售的压力也较小。一般来说这些企业规模也较小。
     不管怎么说，我希望我这篇文章能多少阐述我对于当前形势以及今年是否能够比去年更好的看法。
     我想用这样的观点收尾：预测未来的最好方式是去创造未来。我们应该通过努力工作让事情变得更好，更简单，更有效率，而不应该为未来过于担忧。
     如果你坚持把事情做好的话，那么没有太多值得你去担忧的。
     没有哪个魔鬼可以横行一个世纪！
(翻译：耿海波)
 
Most everywhere I go one of the main topics of discussion of our industry is related to the economy and if the current year is going to be better than last one.
In USA, Mexico, in China, no exceptions, the same questions are asked in most meetings, dinners, etc. Is the USA market getting better? Is the Chinese Ceramic market going to be better this year than last?
I guess if we knew clearly the answers then things and decisions would be a lot easier. But unfortunately nobody yet that I know of can predict the future!
I just came back from a long trip that I did during Chinese New Year to Mexico and USA. What I saw in these countries, the feedback that I received, the reports that were given to me, the ceramic fair that I attended in Las Vegas (Surfaces) were very encouraging.
The numbers clearly reflect an improvement from year to year for the past 3 years in a row, but still significantly below the golden years of 2006 to 2008. The good thing is that it just keeps getting better!
How about China? How does that affect the Chinese domestic market? In one way it starts relieving the stress of having to sell more in China. It is like a pressure valve of a pressure cooker. It is so stressed that if things get better in USA and the rest of the world you can open the valve and release some of the huge pressure of having to sell almost everything in the domestic market.
I do not have direct access to a lot of the detailed information related to the domestic Chinese Ceramic Industry. All I know is that in China things may not be hot but they are still warm while in USA or the rest of the world are still kind of cold but they are starting to warm up.
China is such a big market that can almost absorb all the ceramic production supply of all the local manufacturers even if the domestic manufacturers can no longer export as much as before. But what this causes is internal battles that are mostly fought with pricing and the need to sell volume with significantly lower pricing. And in many cases this situation leads to negative effects to many companies that can simply not compete with volume & pricing and eventually have to close or be absorbed by the giants of the industry.
Definitely there was some consolidation of capacity and number of companies due to this matter during the past two years.
I was told by one of the most important ceramic industry businessman that in this difficult years there were only two kind of companies that were doing well: The ones that have a good market share and protect this by selling volume with lower prices and the other were companies that focus more on quality, design and innovation and definitely not on volume or pricing. But the second type of companies the number is much lower and there is less competition and maybe a little less stress or pressure to sell. Usually the companies are smaller as well.
Anyway, I hope that the article explains somehow my point of view about the current situation and if this year is going to be better than last.
I would like to end by saying that the best way to predict the future is by creating it. We worry too much about the future instead on working hard to make things better, different, simpler, more efficient.
If you just keep doing things well, then there is not much you have to worry about!
There is no evil that can last more than a hundred years!

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